Ukraine

Ukrainians, grappling with the harsh realities of war, express the highest level of concern in the poll, up on the previous survey. Ukrainians’ primary concerns are wars and conflicts (overwhelmingly at 98%), inflation and the rising cost of living (95%), and economic crises (90%). Concerns about one’s personal future are utterly pervasive (over 90%), far exceeding the poll's 75% average. Economic concerns follow, with 63% worried, compared with the 49% survey average. While respondents in other countries largely feel secure in their immediate surroundings, Ukrainian opinion is evenly split: 48% (62% of those aged 18–29) feel safe, while 47% do not. Significant regional differences are evident. In areas close to the frontline, such as Kherson, 83% of people report feeling unsafe, as do 64% in Sumy. In Kyiv, the perception of insecurity stands at 52%, slightly above the national average.

Concerning the international stage, about 74% believe that Ukraine lacks the status it deserves, which ranks Ukrainians among the most dissatisfied with their standing. About 71% view their well-being as closely tied to that of other countries, up from 62% in 2021.

Ukrainians express the highest level of concern in the poll. The perception of insecurity is higher in areas close to the frontline, such as in Kherson and Sumy.

Ukrainians are the strongest supporters of an expanded role for international organisations in the survey, demonstrating their heightened reliance on international collaboration. They support an expanded role for the EU (79%), NATO (77%, significantly above the NATO members' average of 54%), the UN (70%) and the OSCE (63%).

About 90% of Ukrainians regard the end of the war as a fundamental prerequisite for improving security in Europe, highlighting the role of the country as a central focus of European security concerns. This interdependence is evident in the growing collaboration with Western powers and alliances. A significant majority of Ukrainians express a strong desire to join the EU (83%, up from 71% in 2021) and NATO (81%, well up from 62% in 2021). In line with their membership aspirations, Ukrainians do not view either NATO or EU expansion to the East as a threat.

The enthusiasm for closer ties is particularly pronounced regarding the EU: 86% of Ukrainians support closer cooperation. Opinions remain divided on whether the EU is emerging as a global power or whether its interests regularly conflict with those of Ukraine. Ukrainians demonstrate remarkable support for a European Army (75%, up from 56% in 2021). This level of support is significantly higher than the average among polled European countries (49%). It fits the perception of the EU’s current defensive capability, as 53% of Ukrainians believe that the EU is not able to defend itself without support from the US.

Regarding EU leadership in security policy, Ukrainians prefer a trio of Germany, France and Poland (32%), or Germany alone (19%). 

Ukrainians under 30 are more likely to anticipate a new world war (45%) than the national average (36%).

About 63% believe that laws and rules are no longer relevant in international relations, on exactly the same level as in Russia and notably higher than the poll average (47%).

Around 50% of Ukrainians perceive media coverage as biased, but a considerable number (41%) view it as objective. It is unclear how much these attitudes are influenced by the »United News« television programme, which has been broadcasting since the war began, featuring government-endorsed content. 

The US is another key partner, and 81% of Ukrainians express a desire for increased cooperation. They remain confident in the continuation of American supremacy (only 33% believe it is over). This aligns with the essential role of US support under President Biden in providing weapons and leading efforts to assist Kyiv.

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, violating international law, and in February 2022, it escalated into a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the time of the poll the Ukrainian military faced intense pressure in the east and southeast and Ukrainian forces had advanced into Russia's Kursk region to step up the pressure on Moscow. 

An overwhelming 84% of Ukrainians hold Russia responsible for the war, followed by 26% who blame the US and 15% the EU. About 12% believe that their own country is responsible. 

Considering the causes of the invasion, about half attribute it to Russia’s imperialistic ambitions, followed by 29% who point to Russia's desire to assert itself as a global power. Only 8% see longstanding disagreements as a factor. In the characterisation of the war, 53% believe the invasion is aimed at expanding Russia’s territory, in line with the respondents in most other polled countries, while 30% view it as a proxy war. 

Not surprisingly, Ukrainians demonstrate the strongest support in the poll for continued defence assistance. Regarding their own position, 71% favour continuing aid until Ukraine wins the war, while 23% advocate diplomatic efforts to end the war. About 92% advocate further assistance. Asked about the means of support, Ukrainians predominantly favour military means (84%), ahead of economic and humanitarian aid. In a similar vein, an overwhelming majority back increased sanctions against Russia (90%, up dramatically from 67% in 2021), as well as weapons supplies (90%). 

In line with President Zelensky’s calls for international support and troop deployments, only a very small proportion of respondents (14%) oppose third-country intervention. About 66% of respondents fear nuclear escalation, fuelled by Russia’s threatening rhetoric.

Ukrainians’ determination is evident in their stance on ending the war, as almost 40% prioritise ensuring a Russian loss, even at the risk of escalation (the highest proportion in the poll). However, just 23%, albeit still the highest proportion in the survey, believe Ukraine will prevail militarily. In sharp contrast, just 3% think that Russia will prevail militarily, a figure that is significantly lower than the NATO average of 11% and markedly below the 38% of Russians. About 30% are willing to accept territorial losses to end the war (lower than the NATO average of 44%); and 21% support restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, even if it prolongs the war. However, 35% don’t believe that the war is going to end soon, while 30% foresee a diplomatic solution. 

30% are willing to accept territorial losses to end the war, lower than the NATO average.

The continued desire for a Russian defeat is coupled with a growing acceptance of negotiations, as majorities accept starting them even without preconditions (57%) and oppose the notion of no negotiations at all (56%). Nearly all proposed conditions for negotiations receive strong support, with approval rates of over 90%, including if Russia ceases hostilities and attacks on critical infrastructure, and releases prisoners of war. Similarly high approval is seen for conditions such as Russia recognising Ukraine's sovereignty or withdrawing all occupying forces. The condition of Russia changing its political leadership receives comparatively lower support, although still large, with 77% in favour. There is also a mixed response toward international mediation versus direct negotiations, with 43% in favour of mediation and 24% opposed.

57% support negotiations without preconditions and 56% oppose the notion of no negotiations at all.

The openness to negotiations is tied to firm expectations regarding the conditions under which an end to the war is acceptable. Over 80% approve the conditions that Russia withdraws from all territories occupied since 2014, agrees never to strike Ukrainian land again and contributes substantially to the reconstruction of Ukraine, as well as that Kyiv receives credible security guarantees from the West. Unacceptable conditions include a reduction of Ukraine's military capabilities (rejected by 78%), or halting hostilities at the current frontline (by 71%). The following conditions are widely rejected: Ukraine refraining from reclaiming the four occupied oblasts (73% oppose), Russia withdrawing from all territories except Crimea (64% oppose), or withdrawing only from those occupied since 2022 (61% oppose). These opinions are even more pronounced among younger people. Opinions on Russia receiving security guarantees from the West are split, with 39% of Ukrainians opposing and 34% supporting.

60% of Ukrainians believe that their country will emerge stronger as a result of the war.

Despite ongoing losses of terrain on Ukrainian territory over the past 12 months, 60% of Ukrainians believe that their country will emerge stronger as a result of the war. Only Russians perceive their country as even stronger (62%), while 56% of Ukrainians view Russia as weaker.

A growing sense of hope is becoming apparent in response to the war. Some 66% express optimism about the future of their country, 52% for Europe and 46% for the world. Notably, younger generations are even more optimistic.
Among the global security problems that should be given priority, Ukrainians name terrorism (58%), closely followed by geopolitical tensions (53%, the highest value in the poll and a 12% increase since 2021). Human rights violations rank third (46%). 

Military interventions are still rather opposed (52%), but the position has weakened (in 2021 63% were against). Russia’s repeated threats of using nuclear weapons are met with strong opposition in Ukraine, with 88% rejecting their use.
Ukrainians are the most ambitious with regard to pursuing an active foreign policy (79%, the highest value in the poll). However, this seems to have the clear purpose of serving national interests as their stance on taking on international responsibility even if there are no direct benefits is more divided, with 43% in favour and 40% opposed. A strong majority of Ukrainians (82%) support reducing dependencies on countries that do not share their values. Nonetheless, 65% are willing to cooperate with any country, even those that do not share their values, if it promotes peace and security in the world. 

Diplomatic negotiations are viewed as the most effective and legitimate foreign policy tool. While military interventions and economic sanctions are seen as similarly effective, economic sanctions are considered legitimate by twice as many people (75% vs 36%). To promote international peace, the most favoured approach is the improvement of defence capabilities (65%, the highest value in the poll), followed by intensification of diplomatic efforts (40%). 

65% of Ukrainians advocate strengthening defence capabilities as a means to promote international peace.

Ukrainian respondents express general dissatisfaction with the current policies of their country and the international community on climate change. While 44% favour taking all possible actions to combat climate change, 40% would prefer a focus on adaptation. The vast majority see climate change as a challenge to global peace and security and prioritise border security and international cooperation on climate change. About 78% support the idea that rich countries should protect poor and vulnerable countries from the impacts of climate change.

As a country at war, perhaps unsurprisingly they show the highest support among the polled countries (77%) for increased military spending. This is evident in the fact that 61% prioritise defence spending over economic and social expenditures (20%), in contrast to the Russian side, where opinion is almost evenly split. A majority support funding defence through a special levy on the rich, while only 15% back cuts to social and economic spending.