Security Radar 2025

Europe – Lost in Geopolitics

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About the Security Radar 2025

Security Radar 2025 is the fourth edition of a representative public opinion poll first conducted in 2019, then in 2022 and again in 2023 in several countries across the OSCE space. It is a survey capturing citizens’ attitudes on a broad array of foreign and security policy issues. The focus of this year’s edition is clearly the war in Ukraine and the European response.

This year’s Security Radar revisits the last 14-country edition that was presented at the Munich Security Conference several days before Russia invaded Ukraine. We want to see how attitudes changed three years on, and include almost the same set of countries: France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine and the United States. Only three countries are “new” and feature in the “Security Radar” for the first time: Sweden, a country that recently joined NATO in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine; Georgia, a South Caucasus state that has been rocked by mass protests since the reversal of its decision to hold accession negotiations with the EU; and the Central Asian state Kazakhstan, an important country in a sometimes overlooked part of the OSCE area.

The goal of the Security Radar is to provide a realistic picture of public perception regarding current geopolitical challenges and security threats. It also surveys what political responses people in Europe and beyond consider necessary in relation to the war and other urgent issues in the realm of European security.

The report 'Security Radar 2025' was presented at the Munich Security Conference. Read more

The report Security Radar 2025

Key Findings at a Glance

Polling during wartime

Conducting polls during wartime presents significant challenges, requiring cautious interpretation of the results. In Ukraine, ongoing hostilities in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions prevented their inclusion in the sample, affecting the survey’s representativeness. The war has also altered Ukraine's demographics, with millions of people, particularly women, leaving the country and many men serving at the front.

Wartime conditions also increase the likelihood that people will provide what they perceive to be socially desirable responses, potentially skewing results. This may be especially the case in Russia, where repressive laws exacerbate this tendency. Despite these challenges, including Russia and Ukraine in the Security Radar survey remains crucial because of their significant roles in European security. The survey was last conducted in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, a few months before the full-scale invasion.

Data in Ukraine was gathered by Ipsos via online questionnaire. To gather data in Russia, an independent polling company was commissioned, although its identity is withheld to protect it from potential prosecution, given the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's »undesirable organisation« status in Russia. The poll was conducted via telephone, with a shortened questionnaire and some terms adapted to ensure respondents’ safety and from political considerations (for instance, the term »special military operation« was used instead of »Russia's war against Ukraine«).

These adaptations and precautions highlight the complexity of conducting polls in conflict zones and under restrictive regimes. While the data provides valuable insights, it's crucial to consider these limitations when interpreting the results, understanding that they offer a snapshot of public opinion under challenging circumstances rather than a comprehensive view.

Key Findings

Uncertainty is clearly felt across the entire OSCE region, and people consider new wars in Europe to be likely.

Infographic showing survey results from OSCE countries on whether people think there will be a new world war. Most respondents in Turkey answered yes, most in Russia answered no, and most in Lithuania answered “I don’t know.” — Creator: FES / Florian Müller

Increasingly, people everywhere agree with the statement that their country should primarily focus on itself and international entanglements should be avoided as much as possible.

Infographic showing survey results from OSCE countries on agreement with the statement “My country should concentrate on its own well-being and try to avoid international involvements.” All countries show strong support for neutrality, with Serbia leading at 86%, followed by Turkey and Georgia. Ukraine, Italy, and Sweden show the lowest agreement, with 50% of respondents in Sweden supporting the statement. — Creator: FES / Florian Müller

A “New Cold War” between the United States and China is seen by the majority of respondents as characteristic of the emerging world order. The prevailing opinion across all countries is that other countries will have to choose sides.

Infographic showing survey results from OSCE countries on agreement with seven statements about global politics. Respondents in Türkiye generally show the highest levels of agreement across most statements, while respondents in Georgia and Latvia show the lowest. — Creator: FES / Florian Müller

America is changing rapidly: The role of the United States as a guarantor of security in Europe is contested among the US population. The unconditional support for European security is no longer endorsed by a majority of Republican voters.

Infographic comparing U.S. Democratic, Republican, and all US voters on whether the United States should continue providing security for Europe. Democrats show higher unconditional support, while Republicans state that support should be subject to certain conditions. But in general, support for unconditional support is declining across party lines. Additional bar charts show which conditions each group favors. — Creator: FES / Florian Müller

The changed relationship with the United States is noticeable throughout Europe, where only a third believes Europe can defend itself without US help, but 63% agree that Europe must become increasingly independent. What’s interesting is that non-EU countries rate the EU's defense capabilities more favorably than its member states.

Infographic comparing European countries on whether respondents think that the EU can defend itself without the United States. Only about one third of respondents believe it can. Support is lower in EU member states and higher in non-EU countries. Results are shown using blue and red shield icons representing “yes” and “no” responses. — Creator: FES / Florian Müller

In uncertain and war-torn times, defence investments new relevance. 2024 was another record year for defence spending, and public opinion reflects this trend: Majorities in the surveyed countries support higher defence spending, except in Italy, where 62% oppose it.

Infographic comparing support for increasing military spending across OSCE countries. Majorities in most countries support higher spending, with the strongest support in Ukraine, Georgia, and Poland. Only Serbia shows a negative trend. Bar heights represent support levels, with small icons indicating how support has increased or decreased since 2021. Support has risen in almost all countries. — Creator: FES / Florian Müller

Despite supporting a return to investing in defence, when asked to choose, a majority of people still prefer to invest in social and economic purposes. Among EU countries, Poland stands out: Nearly as many Polish people would prefer to invest in defence as in social spending and would be willing to finance this through cuts in other budgets. In war-torn Ukraine, 61% would prefer to invest in defense, with only 20% favoring social spending. In Russia, public opinion is nearly evenly split: 45% would prioritize social spending, and 44% defense spending.

Infographic comparing whether people in various countries would prefer to spend a limited government budget on social and economic purposes or on defence. Across all countries, 56% choose social spending and 29% choose defence. Most countries favor social spending, while Ukraine is exceptional with 61% preferring defence. Percentages are shown in colored circles for each country on a seesaw weighted more toward social spending. — Creator: FES / Florian Müller

Where should the funds for defence spending come from? Nearly half of the people agree with a special levy on the rich: 48% choose this option over higher taxes, new debt, or cuts to other budgets.

Infographic showing how people think increased defence spending should be financed. The largest share, 48%, prefer a special levy on the rich. Smaller shares support cuts to other budgets at 22%, raising taxes at 6%, and taking on new debt at 4%. Bubble sizes reflect the level of support. — Creator: FES / Florian Müller

Country Profiles

Germany

France

Georgia

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Security radar 2025

Katsioulis, Christos ; Dienes, Alexandra ; Josten, Elena ; Kaschowitz, Sabrina ; Unkel, Benedikt ; Weiß, Simon | Vienna : Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, February 2025

Europe - lost in geoplitics