Security Radar 2025: Europe – Lost in Geopolitics

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The report 'Security Radar 2025' was presented at the Munich Security Conference. Read more

About the Security Radar 2025

Security Radar 2025 is the fourth edition of a representative public opinion poll first conducted in 2019, then in 2022 and again in 2023 in several countries across the OSCE space. It is a survey capturing citizens’ attitudes on a broad array of foreign and security policy issues. The focus of this year’s edition is clearly the war in Ukraine and the European response.

This year’s Security Radar revisits the last 14-country edition that was presented at the Munich Security Conference several days before Russia invaded Ukraine. We want to see how attitudes changed three years on, and include almost the same set of countries: France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine and the United States. Only three countries are “new” and feature in the “Security Radar” for the first time: Sweden, a country that recently joined NATO in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine; Georgia, a South Caucasus state that has been rocked by mass protests since the reversal of its decision to hold accession negotiations with the EU; and the Central Asian state Kazakhstan, an important country in a sometimes overlooked part of the OSCE area.

The goal of the Security Radar is to provide a realistic picture of public perception regarding current geopolitical challenges and security threats. It also surveys what political responses people in Europe and beyond consider necessary in relation to the war and other urgent issues in the realm of European security.

Polling during wartime

Conducting polls during wartime presents significant challenges, requiring cautious interpretation of the results. In Ukraine, ongoing hostilities in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions prevented their inclusion in the sample, affecting the survey’s representativeness. The war has also altered Ukraine's demographics, with millions of people, particularly women, leaving the country and many men serving at the front.

Wartime conditions also increase the likelihood that people will provide what they perceive to be socially desirable responses, potentially skewing results. This may be especially the case in Russia, where repressive laws exacerbate this tendency. Despite these challenges, including Russia and Ukraine in the Security Radar survey remains crucial because of their significant roles in European security. The survey was last conducted in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, a few months before the full-scale invasion.

Data in Ukraine was gathered by Ipsos via online questionnaire. To gather data in Russia, an independent polling company was commissioned, although its identity is withheld to protect it from potential prosecution, given the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's »undesirable organisation« status in Russia. The poll was conducted via telephone, with a shortened questionnaire and some terms adapted to ensure respondents’ safety and from political considerations (for instance, the term »special military operation« was used instead of »Russia's war against Ukraine«).

These adaptations and precautions highlight the complexity of conducting polls in conflict zones and under restrictive regimes. While the data provides valuable insights, it's crucial to consider these limitations when interpreting the results, understanding that they offer a snapshot of public opinion under challenging circumstances rather than a comprehensive view.

Key Findings

Growing Uncertainty – and the Likelihood of New Wars

Growing Self-Focus: "My country first!" Becomes an Accepted Attitude

A New Cold War Between the US and China Defines the New World Order

The Majority of Republican Voters No Longer Unconditionally Support Europe

The Majority in Europe Wants to Become Independent from the US

Majorities in Europe Want to Invest in Defence

Yes to Investing in Defence – But Not at the Expense of Social and Economic Spending

Nearly Half Want a Special Levy for the Rich to Finance Defence Spending

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In the Media

18.02.2025

America first — Europe last?

Christos Katsioulis · IPS-Journal


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18.02.2025

Europäische Evergreens

Christos Katsioulis · IPG-Journal


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14.01.2025

Ein Friedenspfad für die Ukraine?

Christos Katsioulis · Le Monde diplomatique


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13.01.2025

In Moscow's Shadows 183: War and Peace (and Public Opinion)

Christos Katsioulis · In Moscow's Shadows


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18.12.2024

Umfrage in Russland und Ukraine zu Friedensgesprächen

Christos Katsioulis im Ö1 Mittagsjournal


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Updates

27.11.2024

New Spotlight Publication: Georgiaʿs look to the future

A analysis of public perceptions, undertaken in the Security Radar 2025, helps contextualise the complex realities in Georgia that has just held...


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15.11.2024

New Spotlight Publication: What ‘America Made Great Again’ Might Mean for European Security

Fresh Data from Security Radar 2025: Foreign Policy Views and Priorities Among a Divided American Electorate


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