The OSCE in a Post-War Scenario in Ukraine

As discussions about Ukraine's future increasingly turn to potential post-war scenarios, this publication examines what a peace settlement could mean for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Rather than asking what the OSCE should do, it explores the political realities that will define the organisation's role, its institutional limitations, and the practical contributions it could make once a settlement is reached.

The publication argues that any future OSCE mandate will be determined by the political decisions of the key negotiating parties, not by the organisation itself. At the same time, it warns that years of institutional and budgetary paralysis have weakened the OSCE's ability to respond rapidly when political opportunities emerge. Instead of pursuing ambitious, comprehensive missions, the paper advocates for a modular approach focused on technically feasible and politically viable areas such as demining, border security, election support through ODIHR, and minority engagement through the High Commissioner on National Minorities.

By assessing both the opportunities and constraints facing the OSCE in a post-war environment, the publication offers a timely contribution to debates on European security and post-conflict governance, highlighting where the organisation can add value—and where expectations should remain realistic.