The EU's engagement in Central Asia: a reality check

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Has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reshaped the balance of power in Central Asia?

This publication explores how influence in the region is shifting between Russia, China and the EU, and where new opportunities are emerging. It identifies key trends and highlights promising avenues for EU engagement, particularly with regard to economic connectivity and transboundary water management.

The analysis is based on over forty interviews with experts and policymakers conducted in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Vienna, and Berlin.

Main theses

• Russia’s war in Ukraine has not fundamentally reshaped the power balance in Central Asia: the region continues to navigate between the major powers.

• Russia remains the key political and security actor in the region and wields strong economic leverage, even though its traditionally strong soft power is declining.

• China’s strong economic influence and rising soft power are accompanied by a push to embed its own technologies and standards in order to align Central Asia structurally with a China-centric technical ecosystem.

• The EU, despite being the region’s largest foreign investor, has been struggling to attain visibility on the ground. Its increased attention to the region is viewed in the context of renewed great-power rivalry and the diversification of supply chains. Democracy, the rule of law and human rights remain Europe’s distinctive assets and core drivers of its soft power in Central Asia.

• Regional cooperation is gaining momentum in Central Asia for the first time in decades, driven by the power shift in Uzbekistan since 2016 and subsequent delimitation of borders, allowing for more cross-border trade, joint ventures, free travel and expert exchanges.

Recommendations

Interests plus values

• The EU’s increasingly pragmatic, interest-driven approach should not be at the expense of democratic values. The EU should speak out more consistently against authoritarian practices in Central Asia and stop turning a blind eye to repression as the alleged »price« of pragmatic cooperation. Long-term stability and reliable economic partnerships depend on predictable, accountable governance.

• The EU is a major development aid provider in the region and could gain additional influence by stepping into the void left by USAID. It should also invest in skilled labour by promoting vocational training in accordance with European standards.

Economy and trade

• When partnering with Central Asian governments on raw material extraction, the EU should expand investment in local processing so that added value stays in Central Asia.

• The EU could consider harnessing synergies with China in Central Asia. Cooperation with China on joint development projects in Central Asia could serve shared interests, for example by investing in complementary infrastructure along the Middle Corridor. China could focus on hard infrastructure, such as roads and ports, while the EU could focus on soft infrastructure, such as logistics, trade harmonisation and operational know‑how. This way, the EU would embed higher quality requirements and interoperability along the corridor and also help prevent the displacement of European technical norms.

Water management

• Building on its reputation as a politically neutral, high-quality technical actor, the EU should encourage and technically support fair and inclusive cross-border cooperation on shared water resources between upstream and downstream countries in Central Asia.

EU engagement in Central Asia: A reality check

EU engagement in Central Asia

Dienes, Alexandra ; Kaschowitz, Sabrina | Vienna : Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, February 2026

a reality check

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