The EU's engagement in Central Asia: a reality check

Has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reshaped the balance of power in Central Asia?

This publication explores how influence in the region is shifting between Russia, China and the EU, and where new opportunities are emerging. It identifies key trends and highlights promising avenues for EU engagement, particularly with regard to economic connectivity and transboundary water management.

The analysis is based on over forty interviews with experts and policymakers conducted in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Vienna, and Berlin.

Main theses

• Russia’s war in Ukraine has not fundamentally reshaped the power balance in Central Asia: the region continues to navigate between the major powers. 

• Russia remains the key political and security actor in the region and wields strong economic leverage, even though its traditionally strong soft power is declining.

• China’s strong economic influence and rising soft power are accompanied by a push to embed its own technologies and standards in order to align Central Asia structurally with a China-centric technical ecosystem. 

• The EU, despite being the region’s largest foreign investor, has been struggling to attain visibility on the ground. Its increased attention to the region is viewed in the context of renewed great-power rivalry and the diversification of supply chains. Democracy, the rule of law and human rights remain Europe’s distinctive assets and core drivers of its soft power in Central Asia.

• Regional cooperation is gaining momentum in Central Asia for the first time in decades, driven by the power shift in Uzbekistan since 2016 and subsequent delimitation of borders, allowing for more cross-border trade, joint ventures, free travel and expert exchanges.