Shifting sands: support for Ukraine in the balance in the super election year of 2024

‘War or Peace? It’s your choice.’ At least that was the message leftist party BSW sought to put over during the regional elections in two of Germany's eastern federal states. The idea was to persuade voters of their personal stake and alleged power to change the course of the war in Ukraine.

In the wake of Germany’s recent regional elections and the ongoing US presidential campaign, support for Ukraine is increasingly becoming a contentious domestic issue. The faultline is clear: Western aid to Ukraine, whether military supplies or financial assistance, depends on the political will of democratically elected governments. This external help is crucial not only for Ukraine’s defence but also for its rebuilding, particularly as Russia intensifies its attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.

Internal challenges within the Western coalition are eroding the commitment to continue this support. The elections of 2024 have highlighted the direct link between domestic democratic debates and collective efforts to aid Ukraine in its defence against Russia and its quest for a just peace.

At the heart of this shift is the US elections. Last year, US Republicans delayed a much-needed support package for Ukraine in Congress. This set a worrying precedent. In Germany, the second largest supporter of Ukraine, foreign policy has also moved to the forefront of domestic political discussions. Across multiple countries, growing public discontent has been stirred up with the current foreign policy approach and Ukrainian aid.

The discontent is compounded of a variety of factors. Many voters long for peace, are pessimistic about global affairs and dissatisfied with their own economic situations. Populist parties have been quick to exploit this. Such parties peddle enticing, often misleading solutions. From Donald Trump’s promise to achieve peace in 24 hours to German fringe parties in Thuringia and Saxony offering a false choice between war and peace, such narratives mislead voters into overestimating how much their local votes could ever realistically impact both national foreign policy and the war in Ukraine.

Unfortunately, such tactics are gaining traction. In the United States, the race between Trump and Harris remains tight. In the German regional elections, parties advocating for halting arms supplies to Ukraine secured nearly half the votes. This indicates that Western strategies for supporting Ukraine suffer from two major blind-spots, which need to be addressed:

(i)     Lack of clear strategic communication: after two and a half years of war, the overall goal of Western support – helping Ukraine to win the war – remains opaque or appears unrealistic to many citizens. Domestic communication tends to focus on values such as territorial integrity, democracy and international law. While important, these messages fail to fully address the strategic aims or realistic outcomes of support. With Russia making territorial gains in recent months and Ukraine facing critical ammunition shortages, the gap is growing between proposed goals and Ukraine’s actual capabilities. Addressing this requires closer realignment of goals and means with Ukrainian reality. Ways of ending the war are needed with the best possible outcome for Ukraine, not to mention resolving existing differences within the Western support coalition.

(ii)    Economic pressures and public fatigue: continuing a ‘business as usual’ approach to domestic politics – specifically to budgets and economic policies – while simultaneously providing considerable financial aid to Ukraine is unsustainable in the long run. As long as strict budgetary constraints, such as Germany’s ‘debt brake’, are in place and European economies suffer from underinvestment, as the Draghi report outlines, public support for Ukraine is likely to erode. When citizens feel they are being asked to choose between supporting Ukraine (‘guns’) and addressing their own economic concerns (‘butter’), the politicisation of aid becomes inevitable – especially in societies that do not perceive themselves to be immediately threatened by Russia.

Tackling both of these blind-spots requires political courage, innovative approaches, and open and honest discussions within the alliance. Doing so would not only help to halt the erosion of public support for Ukraine, but also clarify the strategy and strengthen European economies in the face of future challenges.