The major interstate war that is taking place in Europe has brought escalating conflict back into the consciousness of European citizens. Ten months into it, we polled Germany, France, Poland and Latvia with questions about Europeans’ role in it and compared the answers with our original Security Radar data from autumn 2021.

Do the citizens of these two Eastern and two Western EU member states consider a direct, military confrontation between Russia and the West to be more likely than last year? Who do they view as responsible for the escalation of the conflict? And do they think that a third country should intervene in it, and if so, how?