Kiss ass, kick ass, and get our ass up

It’s been a rough year for European Security so far, and it’s only January. The Russian war against Ukraine is continuing relentlessly, the peace process is stalling. The ‘Peace President’ has been busy elsewhere, kidnapping the Venezuelan president Maduro, while leaving the rest of his regime in place, and threatening to use a whole array of coercive instruments, including military and tariffs, against European partners and close ally Denmark, in order to take over Greenland and make it part of the US.

Even for Trump’s standards, these threats are unprecedented. The only comparison that comes to mind might be the Turkish approach towards fellow NATO country Greece, but this is a relationship coined by far deeper tensions than the US-Danish one. The result of three weeks of anxious diplomacy, posturing and behind the curtains talks, ending at least provisionally this week in Davos, is quite meager. The US and Denmark are re-negotiating their agreement from 1951 and in the end the US might get a few more bases in Greenland as well as a say in foreign investments on the island. But the effects of the drama over Greenland are far wider for the transatlantic relations.

The blunt US approach has revealed that the talks of the transatlantic community or the special relationship between US and Europe are at this point nothing more than talk. The American role in European security is changing rapidly before our very eyes. The broad acknowledgment that Europe needs to be more independent is a first step, now comes the far more difficult process of implementation. This goes way beyond defence policy and includes diversification of trade, transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, as well as diplomatic outreach to other partners. 

However, the whole effort of becoming more independent from the US needs to take into account that at least for the short-term, Europe still depends heavily on Washington. The US is indispensable when it comes to mobilizing NATO forces and bringing them into action – as the US army is not only the brain and the spine, but also the most muscular part of the Alliance. At the same time, the US are a necessary part of ending the war against Ukraine, the biggest security challenge for Europe.

Therefore, the European strategy to deal with the dilemma between dependency and the necessity to become autonomous needs to consist of three parts. And to make it easier to understand, we won’t mince words. First, Europe needs to continue to kiss ass with the US in the hope that they continue their security function in Europe without further hick-ups. Second, Europe needs to kick ass with the US, when necessary and with the right tools. To this end, the toolbox of the EU on trade and tech regulation needs to be activated to pursue European interests. And third, and most importantly, Europe needs to get its ass up and start implementing the agenda of becoming more independent from the US as soon as possible.