Europe's Military Capabilities: A Call for Strategic Decision-Making

Europe’s military capabilities: three key points

The debate on European defence and deterrence capabilities has intensified in recent months. Calls for rapid military build-up and increased defence spending are growing louder, but are they justified? The current mood seems to be ‘the more, the better’, but analysis of the balance of military power between European NATO partners and Russia reveals a more nuanced and optimistic picture, one that calls for strategic decision-making rather than angst-driven rearmament at any cost.

1. The quantitative military balance is in favour of Europe

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently underscored this point, stating that ‘Europe as a whole is truly capable of winning any military, financial, economic confrontation with Russia – we are simply stronger. We just had to start believing in it.’ When we look at key military assets, such as main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, attack helicopters, combat aircraft and artillery, Europe's NATO members collectively maintain a significant advantage over Russia and Belarus taken together. The notable exception is air and missile defence, where Russia has a quantitative edge. However, this doesn’t represent an existential vulnerability, but rather an area that calls for focused, long-term capability development.

Recent reports indicate that the attrition level of the Russian army in 2024 was consistently high, particularly concerning infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), armoured personnel carriers (APCs), and tanks. This underscores the challenges faced by Russian forces and highlights the effectiveness of Western military support for Ukraine. These losses also influence Europe’s ability to collectively deter Russia in the future.

2. Europe must strengthen its defence through smart and strategic investment

Alongside confidence in Europe's existing defence posture, what we need is a strategy to guide our procurement policies. Rather than mirroring the United States' full-spectrum military dominance, European leaders must define security ambitions that align with European defence needs. The volatility of transatlantic relations underscores the necessity for Europe to bolster its own defence industrial and technological base. However, this should be done strategically, focusing on areas in which European solutions can provide sustainable and independent capabilities rather than simply adopting US military models.

The numerical and qualitative advantage in main military capabilities—including equipment, defence spending, manpower, and the technological potential of the industrial base—enables European NATO members to prepare for future war scenarios rather than merely be ready for the ‘last war’. Such a forward-looking approach would allow Europe to adapt to evolving threats and maintain a strategic edge.

3. Thorough analysis is needed at national and European levels, independently of the defence industry

One of the most critical lessons from the war in Ukraine is the necessity of independent, expert-led assessments of military requirements. Strategic decisions involving billions of euros should be informed by thorough analysis conducted at the national and European levels. Otherwise they will end up being driven by the marketing narratives of the defence industry. The time for such evaluations is available; there is no pressing urgency that necessitates hasty decision-making.

• The data clearly show that Europe is not at a disadvantage against Russia in conventional military terms.
• Ensuring that Europe's defence posture remains robust requires informed and targeted choices.
• There is no imminent need to spend ‘whatever it takes’ and to buy whatever weapons are available.
• The focus should now shift towards strengthening European industrial capacities, refining existing capabilities, improving coordination among European allies, and investing in select areas that enhance strategic autonomy.
• Upholding societal cohesion will be key to safeguarding popular support for the coming era of increased defence spending in European democracies.
• By balancing defence expenditure and social spending during this era of increased military spending, Europe can achieve a defence policy that is not only effective but also economically and politically sustainable.