Europe is warming twice as quickly as the rest of the world. In fact, 2023 was the second warmest year on record, with European temperatures 1.02–1.12°C above average, according to the European State of the Climate 2023 Report (produced jointly by EU Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization). The number of days classified as exhibiting »severe heat stress« has been rising inexorably across Europe. In July, the WHO’s Regional Office for Europe declared the climate crisis and related extreme weather events a public health emergency. Social cohesion and public peace will come under unprecedented strain as our current responses prove insufficient.

Within the European Union, the commitment to tackling climate change within its borders is taking shape. The 2021 European Climate Law legally obliges EU Member States to achieve the climate targets for 2030 and 2050. The EU is to allocate 30 per cent of total expenditure to climate-related projects by 2027. A new scheme has been established to assist regions likely to be hardest hit by the transition to a low-carbon economy. Up to €90 billion has been earmarked for this purpose. However, the upcoming European elections might soften this resolve, since many parties oppose decisive climate action.

Competition or cooperation?

Globally, however, the increasing geopoliticisation and weaponisation of climate-related policy may impede global climate cooperation and thus undermine domestic climate goals. Competition over raw materials and green technologies are examples of such securitisation, as are narratives of climate-induced mass migration into Europe. The latter will tip the scales towards securing borders rather than taking climate action. Food security, too, has been geopoliticised in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and climate cooperation may increasingly be used as a bargaining chip in jockeying for position in the global system. The EU and US focus on de-risking from China follows this geopolitical thinking. There is growing alarm about the increasing prioritisation of competition and exclusion in the development of green technologies, as evidenced by the US Inflation Reduction Act. Such approaches fail, in particular, to consider the interests and needs of the global majority. Developing countries’ negative response to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which aims to reflect EU imports’ carbon intensity in their prices, indicates that they feel they are being punished by the imposition of unilateral trade measures: despite being least responsible for the climate crisis they are most affected by it. The Green Deal falls well short of being able to tackle the geopolitical tensions arising from decarbonisation.

Credible climate finance is key

Climate-vulnerable countries’ evident lack of trust in the EU is, at least partly, a consequence of wealthy states’ reluctance to help financially with climate-related loss and damage. To address this issue, the European Union must recognise the importance of building partnerships in developing countries. Fostering collaboration on green research, development and commercialisation can boost economic security not only in Europe but also in Africa and other regions. The resources required to decarbonise economies transcend national borders, and so no country or region can achieve a green economy in isolation.

Finance is a key issue in fostering climate cooperation. At COP29, the pledges made by wealthy countries to the Loss and Damage Fund must exceed the USD 700 million agreed at COP28, which represents a mere 0.2 per cent of the irreversible annual economic and non-economic losses that global heating is inflicting on developing countries. These contributions must be accompanied by financial and banking reforms to boost assistance for climate adaptation. To urge other developed nations to fulfil their commitments, EU climate diplomacy must be both credible and convincing. Climate change has clearly reached Europe. It is already affecting our citizens, as well as cooperation with other parts of the world. To promote broader collaboration and also keep the peace the EU must reach out beyond its borders.