The growing unease in Western societies regarding the potential for a wider conflict between NATO and Russia is a complex phenomenon. While the war in Ukraine has undoubtedly heightened tensions, there is a disconnect between the perceived threat and the actual military capabilities of the involved parties.

The Perception Gap

Public opinion polls across Europe indicate a rising concern about the possibility of the war against Ukraine expanding into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. In the FES Security Radar, 39% of Germans, 45% of French, and 55% of Poles fear a military confrontation between the West and Russia. 25% in Germany, 31% in France, and 34% in Poland even believe that a new world war could erupt. 

This anxiety is fuelled by frequent warnings from politicians and experts about potential Russian aggression against NATO member states. However, these alarmist predictions often fail to align with the observable realities of the ongoing war against Ukraine. In turn, many Western citizens, observing the attrition war in Ukraine, find it difficult to reconcile the idea that Russia could pose a credible threat to NATO, the most powerful military alliance in history.

Military Capabilities: A Stark Contrast

When examining the data on military capabilities, the disparity between NATO and Russia becomes apparent:

NATO's superiority is particularly evident in modern fighter jets and armoured personnel carriers, showcasing a significant qualitative edge. The Alliance's combined economic and demographic resources and active military capabilities, including its vast advantage in strategic enablers, consolidate its military dominance over any potential aggressor of our time.

Intentions vs. Capabilities

While Russian foreign policy rhetoric has been generally aggressive since February 2022, there is limited evidence to suggest a genuine intention to attack NATO member states. The disparity in military capabilities makes such a move highly improbable and strategically unsound.  

The persistent focus on the "Russian threat" by Western media outlets may be contributing to an atmosphere of fear and distrust. This narrative not only increases public anxiety but also potentially undermines faith in political institutions due to the perceived disconnect between the severity of the claimed threat and its plausibility.

A Path Forward

To address this growing uncertainty and alarmism, a shift in discourse may be necessary. Turning away from the exaggerated attribution of non-existent capabilities could contribute to a more balanced and realistic assessment of the geopolitical situation.   This approach would not only alleviate public fears but also foster a more constructive dialogue on international security issues. By focusing on factual analysis and promoting a nuanced understanding of the complex dynamics at play, Western societies can work towards reducing the climate of fear while maintaining vigilance against genuine security threats.

One step in this direction is our FES project “Visualising Military Capabilities”. We want to invite everyone interested in security policy to make their own picture of the basic military capabilities along the NATO-Russia contact zone or in Europe at large. It begins by looking at the state of key capabilities required for a conventional war in Europe in the inventories of 39 states..

Three features make the exploration of the site interesting:

1. The temporal comparison of weapon stocks between 2008 and 2023, which illustrates the development trends in the last fifteen tense years.
2. The possibility of comparing various state constellations more or less institutionalized (NATO, EU, Weimar Triangle, E3, etc.) with Russia or Russia and Belarus.
3. Insight into the quality of the six categories of weapon systems with the help of assigned generation classifications (from 1-5).