Foresight Ukraine

While several Track II initiatives sought to bring Russians together with Americans or Europeans to discuss the conflict, few included Russian, Ukrainian and Western participants in the same process. Such dialogue was politically sensitive, but could help participants look beyond immediate disputes, identify shared interests and develop a better understanding of possible long-term outcomes for Ukraine.

Against this background, the project used a scenario-building and foresight exercise to consider Ukraine’s future. A select, high-level group of approximately 15 participants from Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the US was brought together to develop several long-term scenarios for Ukraine. The exercise was analytical rather than normative, aiming to identify a range of plausible outcomes over a ten-year timeframe.

The scenarios addressed issues including security, domestic politics, geopolitical and geo-economic integration, and Ukraine’s relations with external actors. Participants developed a descriptive narrative for each scenario and assessed its potential positive and negative implications. They then worked backwards from each scenario to identify possible steps and developments that could lead from the situation at the time towards each outcome.

The co-chairs subsequently prepared a report based on the results of the meetings. The final document was made available in English, German, Ukrainian and Russian, and the co-chairs presented the findings in the US, European capitals, Kyiv and Moscow and briefed government officials and other stakeholders.

The project sought to provide greater clarity to policymakers and the expert community about Ukraine’s possible choices and their potential impact, as well as the policies of external actors towards Ukraine. Its scenario-based approach aimed to contribute to a broader understanding of Ukraine’s possible futures and the implications for European security and stability.