Prepare for what you want

Si vis pace, para bellum. This venerable Latin tag has regained political currency and was used most recently by President of the European Council Charles Michel, a few days prior to the European summit in Brussels. Indeed, if you want peace, prepare for war captures the current mood in Europe, fraught with anxiety about the ongoing war in Ukraine and fears of further Russian aggression.

To be sure, this reference to Europe’s classical heritage confers a more attractive patina on the unpalatable but essential financial boost required to shore up our defences. But it also obscures some of the complexity of the current situation, in which just preparing for war is not enough. A lot more needs to be done. Any – inevitably incomplete – to-do list must include at least the following.

If you want peace, prepare for war

We need to prepare for war in both the directions Charles Michel outlined. Ukraine’s defence efforts must be boosted, which means that a major part of European arms production should be delivered to the Ukrainian army. At the same time, Europe’s own defence capabilities should be bolstered, establishing a credible deterrent against any future Russian attempts to shift European borders.

If you want peace, prepare for negotiations

Hand in hand with building up Ukrainian and European defences, meticulous preparations must begin for future talks on ending the hostilities or even the war. Strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities is already part of that. It sends a clear message to Russia’s ruling regime that support for Ukraine will not wane over time. But this must be accompanied by confidential talks between Ukraine and its partners about common red lines, initial proposals and back-up plans for the talks to form a coherent front for possible negotiations.

If you want peace, prepare for societal cohesion

Charles Michel did not attempt to obscure the high costs of preparations for war. Funding on this scale will put political strains on Western societies that have yet to recover fully from the most recent crisis. Most people may have forgotten the pandemic, but our economies have not. The ongoing US election campaign provides an object lesson in how difficult it can be in a democratic society to sustain significant support measures for Ukraine. Every country is different, but a common effort, using economies of scale and shouldering the burden together will make it easier for all.

If you want peace, prepare for peace

The pacifist yin to our martial Latin yang is also indispensable. Holding out to Ukraine the prospect of EU membership gives it a partial glimpse of a potential peaceful future. But more preparations and planning are needed. As the farmers’ protests in Poland show, efforts to secure a long-term peace risk disrupting the shorter-term cohesion of European societies. The feasibility of Ukraine’s EU membership depends on the Union’s ability to integrate such a country with its existing economic structure and thus to deliver on its promises. Secondly, preparations are needed to ensure Ukraine’s security in the future. What security guarantees can be offered? What arrangements can be made to avert future attacks by Russia? NATO membership has been proposed as the silver bullet, but it is far from secured. Europeans need to start thinking more broadly about regional security arrangements, potentially involving outside actors such as India or China as part of a lasting solution, instead of just another interim arrangement until the next conflict.

No Latin quote can encompass all these aspects, and they are far from exhaustive. But if we focus on a broader range of strategies our hopes of a sustainable peace are far more realistic.