Whether it be the war against Ukraine, conflict in the Caucasus or continuing upheavals in the Middle East, the European Union has struggled to assert itself as a serious international actor. The reasons are well known: vague objectives, competing internal interests and a variety of loosely connected policies make it difficult for the EU to play a substantial role in either finding or enforcing solutions. Despite these weaknesses, however, the EU has remarkable strength, its soft power.

Where does this strength come from?

The cross-national surveys FES Youth Study Southeast Europe and the latest edition of the Security Radar show that the European Union enjoys a remarkable level of popularity among young people in relation to the total population of EU Member and Non-Member states. Among the key findings: young people associate the EU with democratic values and have more trust in European institutions than in their national ones. This is especially true for Non-Member states. The prospect of EU membership is associated with a higher level of optimism.

The EU is also trusted in international affairs: 18 to 29 year-olds in all surveyed countries are overwhelmingly in favour of more cooperation with the EU. A majority of those under 30 in the United Kingdom, Ukraine and Kazakhstan wish that the EU played a bigger role in international politics. These numbers may indicate the success of EU cooperation programmes and the attractiveness of the European Union.

Kazakhstan, as a non-member state with an evolving relationship with the EU, is a particularly interesting case. A closer look reveals a significant difference in perceptions of the EU among age groups: 62% of those under 30 favour more cooperation, while only 46% of older Kazakhs express the same sentiment. When asked whether EU policies regularly come into conflict with the interests of their country, nearly 50% of 18 to 29 year olds disagree, and a mere 23% agree. This gap could be partially explained by the passing of an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) in 2020, which deepened existing economic and cultural ties, as well as the launch of the Erasmus+ programme for young Kazakhs.

Does it pay to be popular?

While popularity is inherently positive, it also provides significant geopolitical advantages. Credibility is a valuable currency in international politics. It enhances the desirability of collaboration with an actor, reduces the risk of escalation due to information asymmetry and enables the role of honest broker in conflicts. While good public ratings alone don’t confer credibility on the international stage, they nonetheless serve as a valuable foundation for it.

Through programmes such as Erasmus+, the EU has managed to lay the basis for building credibility. Young people in countries such as Kazakhstan are evidently open for more collaboration and trust that the EU is competent to play a bigger role in international politics. The difficulties described above will persist, but as a trusted international actor, mediation from and cooperation with the EU could become more accepted.

Playing the long game

Maintaining and increasing its credibility should be a long-term goal for the EU. The data suggest that this is best achieved through continuing the soft power approach. Cooperation builds trust and continuing programmes such as Erasmus+ could ensure that future generations grow up with a more favourable impression of the EU. The current international challenges are forcing the EU to reorient its foreign policy by adding more credible hard-power elements. But in doing so the EU should be careful not to neglect the successes of the past.